Adrian Monck generously shared a PDF copy of his forthcoming book - “Can You Trust The Media?” with me, obviously in the hope that I’d direct some of my many thousands of unique blog visitors* towards purchase. I’ll be posting my thoughts, for what they’re worth, in the next few days.
For now, though, Monck’s book reminded me (i.e. directly referenced) an idea on information from Hal Varian - who, incidentally, is the author of the textbook which saved my bacon when learning information economics.
The idea is based on Malthus. The amount of information presented through media outlets grows exponentially, but the time available to consume it grows (at best) linearly. As such, more and more information is produced but not consumed.
To quote:
“The supply of information (in virtually every medium) grows exponentially whereas the amount that is consumed grows at best linearly. This is ultimately due to the fact that our mental powers and time available to process information is constrained.
This has the uncomfortable consequence that the fraction of the information produced that is actually consumed is asymptoting towards zero.”
The theory is that as more news is produced, especially rolling TV and internet news services vastly expanding quantity of output, fewer people follow each particular outlet, and less content is actually seen. When news is competing with other forms of media too, the effect is compounded. There are only so many hours in the day, after all.
Of course, the classic malthusian catastrophe - that exponential population group coupled with linear growth in agriculture would lead to eventual starvation for all - turned out to be (thus far) a fallacy. The Malthus model underestimated productivity increases in farming, which have greatly increased crop yields over given areas. Population growth also didn’t continue quite as modelled - birth rates fall in developed countries. Agriculture growth is more-than-linear, population not-quite-exponential.
Is this the case for information too? To a certain extent, almost certainly.
Look back 30 years. The time available to watch television (for example) would be rather limited - evenings, when the family is gathered round. Radio, books and newspaper were less constricted in terms of time, but in terms of efficiency of gathering media, not great.
New technology is allowing media to be accessed more quickly: RSS readers allow users to pull in content from a variety of sources extremely quickly and efficiently. Mobile internet and video increase the time available to consume multimedia content.
Many users now multi-task media consumption: as I write this blog post, I have new RSS posts appearing in the bottom left of my screen, and the Today programme playing through the radio.
Software such as iPlayer and 4od - plus Sky+ - allow output to be watched at a variety of times, giving users more flexibility and access to media than ever before.
Enough waffle: the profileration of media is coupled with a variety of tools (and a change in usage patterns) to make consumption easier and more efficient. Talking about constraints of time as fixed and immutable is an over-simplification. The malthusian situation is a worst-case scenario, which in any case would not necessarily make the case for the influence of any given media source diminishing in influence.
Of course, it doesn’t quite sweep the problem away - media does seem to be fragmenting, and news channels seem to have pretty small audiences, relatively speaking. But Varian’s theory, elegant though it is, is unlikely to be the sole, or even primary, driving force behind it.
That said, he’s still an ace economist…
*Note well: The truth of this statement depends on how one defines “many”. And note the absence of time frame in the statement.